基于公共天气预报的三江平原ET0预报模型比较及敏感性分析

为了提出适合我国三江平原的高精度ET0预报方法,基于该区6个气象站点的天气预报数据和实测气象数据,以FAO56-Penman-Monteith(FAO56-PM)公式计算值为基准,比较Hargreaves-Samani(HS)、Thornthwaite(TH)和Blaney-Criddle(BC)3个ET₀预报模型的效果,对最优模型进行敏感性分析。结果表明:3个模型1~7 d预见期平均绝对误差均值分别为0.66、0.65、0.65 mm/d,均方根误差分别为0.93、0.96、0.95 mm/d,相关系数分别为0.857、0.828、0.840。1~5 d预见期最优预报模型为HS模型,6~7 d为TH模型。总体上预报精度由高到低为HS、TH、BC模型,建议采用HS模型在三江平原开展ET₀预报,HS模型预报对最高温预报的敏感性大于最低温。其预报值在夏季受温度预报误差影响最大,冬季最小,4季整体误差较小。研究可为灌溉预报提供较准确的数据基础。     

草坪质量的模糊数学综合评价方法

由于国内外对草坪质量评价还没有统一标准,探索建立数量化、多指标的质量评价方法具有重要意义。选择了密度、质地、颜色、盖度、均一性、回弹性作为评价指标进行数量化测定,采用层次分析法(AHP)通过构建权重矩阵,对观赏草坪和运动草坪分别配以指标权重,然后结合模糊数学综合评判方法,给出草坪质量的评价等级。评定结果基本符合实际,表明该方法能为客观评价草坪质量进一步提供理论方法依据,具有一定科学性和实用性。     

灰色系统理论在燕麦抗倒伏综合评价中的应用

运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度法对20个燕麦Avena sativa品种(系)的抗倒伏性进行综合评价,同时利用综合评价值与各指标进行最优回归方程模型的拟合。结果表明,青永久343的综合评价值最高,抗倒伏性最好;甘肃黄燕麦的综合评价值最低,最易倒伏,这与燕麦田间倒伏调查结果基本吻合。各指标中穗长倒数、株高构成指数、弹力和2~3茎节鲜质量4个指标对燕麦抗倒伏性有显著影响。     

太白山国家级自然保护区评价初探

从生态、社会经济和有效管理3个方面选取了20项指标对太白山自然保护区进行了单项及综合评价。通过评价指标的等级划分处理,计算出太白山自然保护区的评价总分为77分,说明该保护区的整体保护效果好。在此基础上,分析了太白山自然保护区目前所存在的问题,并提出了相应的建议和保护对策。     

四种替代药剂对梨火疫病菌的抑制活性及其田间防效

为筛选农用链霉素替代药剂,以其为对照药剂,测定春雷霉素、中生菌素、噻霉酮和噻菌铜这4种常用细菌病害防治药剂对梨火疫病菌Erwinia amylovora的抑制活性、对梨火疫病的田间防效及不同药剂处理后梨中的农药残留,并对这4种药剂的作物安全性进行评价。结果表明,中生菌素、噻霉酮和春雷霉素对梨火疫病菌有抑制作用,抑制中浓度EC50分别为1.60、6.64和60.57 mg/L,中生菌素的抑制效果高于链霉素。在连续2年田间试验中,中生菌素1 000倍液和春雷霉素400倍液对梨火疫病的保护效果和治疗效果均达90.33%以上,噻霉酮500倍液和噻菌铜200倍液对梨火疫病的保护效果均达100.00%,治疗效果均超过86.97%,与对照药剂农用链霉素2 000倍液的效果相当。所有药剂处理后均未检出中生菌素、春雷霉素、高效氯氰菊酯和农用链霉素的农药残留,而噻虫嗪、阿维菌素和矮壮素虽有检出,但其残留量均低于国家限量标准。花期前后、幼果期和果实膨大期施药,中生菌素、春雷霉素、噻霉酮和噻菌铜对梨花、叶片、枝梢及果实生长均无不良影响。综合来看,中生菌素、春雷霉素、噻霉酮和噻菌铜均可作为农用链霉素的替代药剂,...     

Genetic evaluation using random regression models with different covariance functions for test‐day milk yield in an admixture population of Thailand goats

The objectives of this study were to compare covariance functions (CF) and estimate the heritability of milk yield from test‐day records among exotic (Saanen, Anglo‐Nubian, Toggenburg and Alpine) and crossbred goats (Thai native and exotic breed), using a random regression model. A total of 1472 records of test‐day milk yield were used, collected from 112 does between 2003 and 2006. CF of the study were Wilmink function, second‐ and third‐order Legendre polynomials, and linear splines 4 knots located at 5, 25, 90 and 155 days in milk (SP25–90) and 5, 35, 95 and 155 of days in milk (SP35–95). Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method (REML). Goodness of fit, Akaike information criterion (AIC), percentage of squared bias (PSB), mean square error (MSE), and empirical correlation (RHO) between the observed and predicted values were used to compare models. The results showed that CF had an impact on (co)variance estimation in random regression models (RRM). The RRM with splines 4 knots located at 5, 25, 90 and 155 of days in milk had the lowest AIC, PSB and MSE, and the highest RHO. The heritability estimated throughout lactation obtained with this model ranged from 0.13 to 0.23.     

狂犬病灭活疫苗CVS-11株对牛的免疫效果

野生狐和貉狂犬病流行于新疆、内蒙古和黑龙江地区,是当地牛、羊和骆驼等家畜狂犬病的主要传染源。在国内尚无野生动物口服疫苗的前提下,对家畜进行狂犬病灭活疫苗接种,具有重要的公共卫生学意义。本研究利用国产犬用狂犬病灭活疫苗(CVS-11株)对牛进行了免疫效果和安全性评价。以不同剂量疫苗肌内注射免疫成年牛350头,通过比较免疫后狂犬病病毒中和抗体水平和持续期,确定犬用狂犬病灭活疫苗(CVS-11株)在牛的最佳免疫剂量为1次性注射2剂量疫苗,免疫持续期为1年。结果表明,犬用狂犬病灭活疫苗(CVS-11株)免疫牛时,具有较高的免疫原性和安全性,适用于牛等大型动物的狂犬病注射免疫。     

饲用小黑麦在海河平原区的生产性能及适应性评价

在海河平原区对11个饲用小黑麦品种进行了生产性能比较试验以及旱作条件下适应性,试验得出:冀饲-1成熟早,生育期短,抽穗期比对照中新830提前6d,干草产量高,比对照中新830提高26.7%,能与春播作物形成一年两作,适于在海河平原区推广利用;冀饲-2在海河平原地区鲜干草产量均较高,分别比对照中新830增产4 854.3kg/hm2和777.0kg/hm2,属于高产品种,茎叶比低,叶量丰富是海河平原区主要品种推广种植。旱作条件下种植,饲用小黑麦株高比正常管理条件下降低64.6%~83.4%,分蘖数和成穗数分别减少60.0%~74.7%和85.3%~98.1%,鲜干草产量分别降低69.3%和70.2%,利用价值不大,只有在一定的灌溉和施肥条件下种植才能产生较好经济效益。     

Use of genomic recursions and algorithm for proven and young animals for single‐step genomic BLUP analyses – a simulation study

The purpose of this study was to examine accuracy of genomic selection via single‐step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) when the direct inverse of the genomic relationship matrix ( G ) is replaced by an approximation of G ^?1 based on recursions for young genotyped animals conditioned on a subset of proven animals, termed algorithm for proven and young animals (APY). With the efficient implementation, this algorithm has a cubic cost with proven animals and linear with young animals. Ten duplicate data sets mimicking a dairy cattle population were simulated. In a first scenario, genomic information for 20k genotyped bulls, divided in 7k proven and 13k young bulls, was generated for each replicate. In a second scenario, 5k genotyped cows with phenotypes were included in the analysis as young animals. Accuracies (average for the 10 replicates) in regular EBV were 0.72 and 0.34 for proven and young animals, respectively. When genomic information was included, they increased to 0.75 and 0.50. No differences between genomic EBV (GEBV) obtained with the regular G ^?1 and the approximated G ^?1 via the recursive method were observed. In the second scenario, accuracies in GEBV (0.76, 0.51 and 0.59 for proven bulls, young males and young females, respectively) were also higher than those in EBV (0.72, 0.35 and 0.49). Again, no differences between GEBV with regular G ^?1 and with recursions were observed. With the recursive algorithm, the number of iterations to achieve convergence was reduced from 227 to 206 in the first scenario and from 232 to 209 in the second scenario. Cows can be treated as young animals in APY without reducing the accuracy. The proposed algorithm can be implemented to reduce computing costs and to overcome current limitations on the number of genotyped animals in the ssGBLUP method.     

硫酸卡那霉素注射液含量测定的不确定度分析

为研究微生物检定法(管碟法)测定硫酸卡那霉素注射液生物效价试验中各因素对结果的影响,采用不确定度分析,将影响因素归纳为称量、稀释、加样、测定、平行试验,量化各不确定度分量,评估各因素的影响因子。结果表明,牛津杯加样体积对测定结果影响最大,提示试验中应尽可能精确控制加样体积。